Setting description

Several treatments more effective in distinctive signatures: (Hormone therapies, TP53-); (Taxel therapies, TEfus+); (Niraparib, DRD+)

Simulations setting

PFS distributions


Treatment effects

By subgroup:

subtype var Other Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
— param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3
–+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.014, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.013, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 66.5, median = 54.4 mean = 70.5, median = 57.5 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.7, hr = 0.5 af = 1.8, hr = 0.46 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3
-+- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3
-++ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3
+– param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.012, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1 mean = 74.3, median = 60.7
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3 af = 1.9, hr = 0.43
+-+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.014, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.013, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.012, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 66.5, median = 54.4 mean = 70.5, median = 57.5 mean = 74.3, median = 60.7
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.7, hr = 0.5 af = 1.8, hr = 0.46 af = 1.9, hr = 0.43
++- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.012, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1 mean = 74.3, median = 60.7
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3 af = 1.9, hr = 0.43
+++ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.012, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 74.3, median = 60.7
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.9, hr = 0.43


By signature:

signature var Other Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.021, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 38.3, median = 31.3 mean = 38.6, median = 31.5 mean = 43.6, median = 35.6
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 0.98, hr = 1.03 af = 0.99, hr = 1.02 af = 1.12, hr = 0.87
TP53- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.022, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.021, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.021, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 42.3, median = 34.6 mean = 43, median = 35.1 mean = 43.6, median = 35.6
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.08, hr = 0.9 af = 1.1, hr = 0.88 af = 1.12, hr = 0.87
TP53+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.026, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.026, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.021, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 35.1, median = 28.6 mean = 35.1, median = 28.6 mean = 43.6, median = 35.6
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 0.9, hr = 1.15 af = 0.9, hr = 1.15 af = 1.12, hr = 0.87
DRD+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.012, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 38.3, median = 31.3 mean = 38.6, median = 31.5 mean = 74.3, median = 60.7
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 0.98, hr = 1.03 af = 0.99, hr = 1.02 af = 1.9, hr = 0.43
TEfus+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.019, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.019, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.021, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 48.7, median = 39.8 mean = 49.6, median = 40.5 mean = 43.6, median = 35.6
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.25, hr = 0.75 af = 1.27, hr = 0.73 af = 1.12, hr = 0.87

Errors and power


graduation (counts and proportions):
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 5 10 14
TP53- 28 31 22
TP53+ 12 20 46
DRD+ 3 7 350
TEfus+ 31 33 4
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 0.010 0.020 0.028
TP53- 0.056 0.062 0.044
TP53+ 0.024 0.040 0.092
DRD+ 0.006 0.014 0.700
TEfus+ 0.062 0.066 0.008
futility (counts and proportions):
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 33 39 2
TP53- 125 101 20
TP53+ 211 190 7
DRD+ 76 60 1
TEfus+ 59 67 44
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 0.066 0.078 0.004
TP53- 0.250 0.202 0.040
TP53+ 0.422 0.380 0.014
DRD+ 0.152 0.120 0.002
TEfus+ 0.118 0.134 0.088
max sample size (counts and proportions):
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 0 0 0
TP53- 69 77 52
TP53+ 7 14 13
DRD+ 0 0 0
TEfus+ 0 1 0
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 0.000 0.000 0.000
TP53- 0.138 0.154 0.104
TP53+ 0.014 0.028 0.026
DRD+ 0.000 0.000 0.000
TEfus+ 0.000 0.002 0.000


Errors & power

The overall error was 0.182.
The corresponding errors separate for the different treatments were:

Hormone_therapies   Taxel_therapies         Niraparib 
            0.070             0.090             0.038

The overall power was 0.734.
The corresponding power separate for the different treatments were:

Hormone_therapies   Taxel_therapies         Niraparib 
            0.056             0.066             0.700

Median results at the end of the trial

By signature:
signature var Control Hormone_therapies Niraparib Taxel_therapies
all graduation 0 5 14 10
futility 0 33 2 39
max_n 0 0 0 0
n 737 (681, 782) 329 (185, 480) 355 (218, 496) 329 (175, 489)
n_unique 737 (681, 782) 329 (185, 480) 355 (218, 496) 329 (175, 489)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (60, 60) 60 (60, 60) 60 (60, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 34 (14, 52) 23 (12, 30) 23 (8, 40)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.43 (0.04, 0.88) 0.96 (0.58, 1) 0.55 (0.11, 0.92)
rate 0.022 (0.02, 0.023) 0.023 (0.02, 0.026) 0.019 (0.016, 0.022) 0.022 (0.02, 0.025)
DRD+ graduation 0 3 350 7
futility 0 76 1 60
max_n 0 0 0 0
n 200 (164, 229) 74 (38, 126) 112 (62, 174) 74 (34, 127)
n_unique 200 (164, 229) 74 (38, 126) 112 (62, 174) 74 (34, 127)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (46, 60) 42 (21, 60) 60 (50, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 43 (34, 56) 34 (20, 53) 45 (35, 57)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.53 (0.1, 0.91) 1 (1, 1) 0.56 (0.13, 0.95)
rate 0.021 (0.018, 0.023) 0.02 (0.015, 0.026) 0.01 (0.008, 0.012) 0.019 (0.014, 0.026)
TEfus+ graduation 0 31 4 33
futility 0 59 44 67
max_n 0 0 0 1
n 269 (234, 295) 126 (57, 195) 103 (57, 166) 134 (59, 208)
n_unique 269 (234, 295) 126 (57, 195) 103 (57, 166) 134 (59, 208)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (36, 60) 60 (60, 60) 60 (34, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 35 (23, 55) 30 (22, 43) 34 (22, 51)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.67 (0.16, 0.97) 0.62 (0.12, 0.96) 0.76 (0.23, 0.98)
rate 0.017 (0.015, 0.019) 0.016 (0.013, 0.02) 0.017 (0.013, 0.021) 0.015 (0.013, 0.02)
TP53- graduation 0 28 22 31
futility 0 125 20 101
max_n 0 69 52 77
n 403 (357, 445) 187 (72, 302) 191 (90, 300) 178 (67, 302)
n_unique 403 (357, 445) 187 (72, 302) 191 (90, 300) 178 (67, 302)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (24, 60) 60 (60, 60) 60 (24, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 30 (18, 52) 22 (15, 35) 28 (17, 51)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.52 (0.07, 0.93) 0.85 (0.33, 1) 0.69 (0.16, 0.98)
rate 0.021 (0.019, 0.023) 0.021 (0.018, 0.026) 0.019 (0.015, 0.022) 0.02 (0.016, 0.025)
TP53+ graduation 0 12 46 20
futility 0 211 7 190
max_n 0 7 13 14
n 332 (300, 365) 135 (54, 240) 164 (83, 255) 151 (54, 260)
n_unique 332 (300, 365) 135 (54, 240) 164 (83, 255) 151 (54, 260)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (26, 60) 60 (49, 60) 60 (22, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 35 (22, 54) 28 (18, 46) 31 (17, 52)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.34 (0.05, 0.81) 0.94 (0.53, 1) 0.36 (0.05, 0.83)
rate 0.023 (0.021, 0.025) 0.025 (0.021, 0.03) 0.019 (0.016, 0.022) 0.025 (0.021, 0.031)


By subgroup combinations:
subtype var Control Hormone_therapies Niraparib Taxel_therapies
— graduation 0 161 50 154
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 69 52 77
n 225 (187, 255) 88 (33, 201) 106 (30, 201) 77 (24, 188)
n_unique 225 (187, 255) 88 (33, 201) 106 (30, 201) 77 (24, 188)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.32 (0.04, 0.8) 0.32 (0.05, 0.8) 0.29 (0.06, 0.78)
rate 0.025 (0.022, 0.028) 0.028 (0.023, 0.036) 0.027 (0.022, 0.035) 0.028 (0.023, 0.038)
–+ graduation 0 204 84 199
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 68 52 78
n 65 (52, 79) 35 (9, 64) 12 (5, 34) 41 (12, 69)
n_unique 65 (52, 79) 35 (9, 64) 12 (5, 34) 41 (12, 69)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.69 (0.28, 0.96) 0.08 (0.01, 0.27) 0.74 (0.35, 0.97)
rate 0.013 (0.01, 0.017) 0.011 (0.007, 0.018) 0.029 (0.02, 0.051) 0.011 (0.007, 0.017)
-+- graduation 0 236 66 233
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 7 13 14
n 144 (120, 165) 50 (15, 124) 70 (17, 133) 51 (19, 132)
n_unique 144 (120, 165) 50 (15, 124) 70 (17, 133) 51 (19, 132)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.32 (0.06, 0.8) 0.35 (0.07, 0.81) 0.34 (0.04, 0.78)
rate 0.024 (0.021, 0.028) 0.028 (0.022, 0.041) 0.026 (0.021, 0.036) 0.028 (0.023, 0.038)
-++ graduation 0 279 105 283
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 7 12 14
n 106 (87, 123) 41 (13, 97) 30 (11, 86) 44 (16, 103)
n_unique 106 (87, 123) 41 (13, 97) 30 (11, 86) 44 (16, 103)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.45 (0.09, 0.87) 0.16 (0.02, 0.56) 0.51 (0.12, 0.9)
rate 0.021 (0.018, 0.025) 0.022 (0.017, 0.033) 0.028 (0.022, 0.04) 0.022 (0.017, 0.031)
+– graduation 0 206 348 201
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 68 48 77
n 59 (44, 72) 18 (5, 44) 34 (15, 62) 16 (4, 43)
n_unique 59 (44, 72) 18 (5, 44) 34 (15, 62) 16 (4, 43)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.35 (0.08, 0.78) 1 (0.94, 1) 0.34 (0.08, 0.78)
rate 0.025 (0.02, 0.031) 0.028 (0.018, 0.049) 0.01 (0.007, 0.015) 0.028 (0.019, 0.05)
+-+ graduation 0 244 371 240
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 67 48 78
n 55 (38, 70) 24 (6, 49) 24 (13, 42) 23 (6, 49)
n_unique 55 (38, 70) 24 (6, 49) 24 (13, 42) 23 (6, 49)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.59 (0.2, 0.9) 0.77 (0.3, 0.95) 0.66 (0.29, 0.94)
rate 0.013 (0.01, 0.018) 0.011 (0.007, 0.021) 0.01 (0.006, 0.016) 0.01 (0.005, 0.019)
++- graduation 0 273 367 265
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 7 12 14
n 43 (30, 55) 11 (4, 32) 25 (12, 46) 13 (3, 34)
n_unique 43 (30, 55) 11 (4, 32) 25 (12, 46) 13 (3, 34)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.36 (0.09, 0.76) 0.99 (0.9, 1) 0.38 (0.11, 0.77)
rate 0.025 (0.019, 0.032) 0.029 (0.018, 0.05) 0.01 (0.006, 0.015) 0.028 (0.017, 0.053)
+++ graduation 0 308 394 312
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 7 11 14
n 43 (28, 54) 14 (4, 34) 21 (10, 44) 11 (3, 33)
n_unique 43 (28, 54) 14 (4, 34) 21 (10, 44) 11 (3, 33)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.44 (0.11, 0.81) 0.96 (0.7, 1) 0.42 (0.12, 0.82)
rate 0.021 (0.016, 0.028) 0.022 (0.013, 0.041) 0.01 (0.006, 0.016) 0.022 (0.013, 0.045)

Median results over time

Signatures:

Posterior probabilities

Randomization probabilities

PFS rates


Subgroup combinations:

Posterior probabilities

Randomization probabilities

PFS rates

Median results at stop

By signature

Graduation:
signature var Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all count 5 10 14
time_stop 17 (16, 36) 22 (17, 27) 24 (11, 31)
n_trt 109 (98, 174) 140 (111, 188) 146 (64, 233)
n_control 187 (173, 407) 238 (184, 305) 260 (129, 359)
post_p 0.98 (0.97, 0.99) 0.94 (0.9, 0.99) 1 (0.95, 1)
order 1 (1, 3.4) 1 (1, 3.1) 1.5 (1, 2)
TP53- count 28 31 22
time_stop 30 (19, 55) 31 (19, 57) 24 (16, 39)
n_trt 118 (68, 247) 147 (73, 272) 89 (58, 135)
n_control 172 (112, 353) 207 (113, 359) 135 (94, 239)
post_p 0.94 (0.89, 0.98) 0.97 (0.9, 0.99) 0.99 (0.96, 1)
order 1 (1, 2) 1 (1, 3) 2 (1, 3)
TP53+ count 12 20 46
time_stop 28 (19, 47) 27 (20, 55) 28 (18, 46)
n_trt 79 (54, 145) 94 (59, 185) 92 (54, 150)
n_control 128 (91, 230) 134 (79, 298) 154 (85, 234)
post_p 0.95 (0.87, 0.99) 0.95 (0.89, 0.98) 0.99 (0.97, 1)
order 1 (1, 2) 2 (1, 3.1) 1 (1, 2.5)
DRD+ count 3 7 350
time_stop 36 (32, 51) 46 (35, 58) 34 (20, 53)
n_trt 81 (59, 115) 76 (51, 104) 94 (58, 151)
n_control 130 (108, 146) 170 (112, 198) 107 (64, 172)
post_p 0.99 (0.98, 0.99) 1 (0.96, 1) 1 (0.97, 1)
order 2 (1.2, 2) 2 (1, 2.8) 1 (1, 2)
TEfus+ count 31 33 4
time_stop 43 (23, 57) 39 (20, 51) 30 (18, 46)
n_trt 104 (56, 175) 103 (54, 174) 74 (57, 105)
n_control 183 (93, 246) 157 (83, 230) 118 (77, 199)
post_p 0.97 (0.91, 1) 0.96 (0.89, 0.99) 0.95 (0.9, 0.98)
order 2 (1, 3) 2 (1, 3) 3 (2.3, 3)
Futility:
signature var Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all count 33 39 2
time_stop 35 (13, 55) 23 (8, 42) 15 (14, 16)
n_trt 161 (67, 273) 107 (55, 202) 83 (82, 84)
n_control 415 (153, 718) 268 (89, 480) 158 (148, 167)
post_p 0.03 (0.01, 0.17) 0.06 (0.01, 0.21) 0.22 (0.2, 0.24)
order 3 (1, 4.8) 2 (1, 4) 1 (1, 1)
TP53- count 125 101 20
time_stop 30 (17, 51) 27 (16, 47) 20 (15, 27)
n_trt 92 (53, 205) 86 (54, 168) 71 (54, 93)
n_control 183 (104, 337) 175 (95, 319) 114 (88, 170)
post_p 0.11 (0.03, 0.24) 0.16 (0.05, 0.28) 0.2 (0.09, 0.27)
order 1 (1, 3) 2 (1, 3) 1 (1, 2)
TP53+ count 211 190 7
time_stop 35 (22, 54) 32 (17, 51) 25 (21, 35)
n_trt 79 (52, 160) 83 (51, 159) 55 (52, 101)
n_control 188 (110, 302) 170 (84, 286) 145 (104, 207)
post_p 0.13 (0.03, 0.26) 0.13 (0.03, 0.25) 0.28 (0.19, 0.3)
order 2 (1, 4) 1 (1, 3) 2 (1, 3.4)
DRD+ count 76 60 1
time_stop 43 (34, 56) 45 (35, 53) 16 (16, 16)
n_trt 60 (50, 100) 62 (51, 89) 52 (52, 52)
n_control 148 (111, 194) 144 (115, 190) 55 (55, 55)
post_p 0.16 (0.04, 0.27) 0.16 (0.07, 0.26) 0.29 (0.29, 0.29)
order 2 (1, 5) 2 (1, 4) 2 (2, 2)
TEfus+ count 59 67 44
time_stop 34 (25, 54) 33 (23, 49) 30 (22, 43)
n_trt 67 (51, 122) 72 (52, 112) 65 (51, 106)
n_control 146 (101, 247) 141 (92, 227) 129 (87, 199)
post_p 0.18 (0.02, 0.25) 0.12 (0.04, 0.23) 0.12 (0.04, 0.25)
order 2 (1, 5) 2 (1, 4) 2 (1, 4)


By subgroup combinations

Graduation:
signature treatment var — –+ -+- -++ +– +-+ ++- +++
all Hormone_therapies count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
time 17 (16, 36) 17 (16, 36) 17 (16, 36) 17 (16, 36) 17 (16, 36) 17 (16, 36) 17 (16, 36) 17 (16, 36)
n 44 (24, 51) 9 (4, 12) 26 (14, 35) 15 (15, 43) 7 (5, 8) 5 (3, 7) 4 (2, 19) 5 (3, 19)
post_p 0.81 (0.61, 0.9) 0.59 (0.58, 0.74) 0.74 (0.57, 0.89) 0.83 (0.71, 0.92) 0.66 (0.59, 0.67) 0.58 (0.56, 0.76) 0.56 (0.56, 0.64) 0.62 (0.59, 0.68)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.018 (0.014, 0.028) 0 (0, 0.004) 0.015 (0.002, 0.021) 0.01 (0.001, 0.017) 0 (0, 0.015) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0.014) 0 (0, 0.022)
Niraparib count 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14
time 24 (11, 31) 24 (11, 31) 24 (11, 31) 24 (11, 31) 24 (11, 31) 24 (11, 31) 24 (11, 31) 24 (11, 31)
n 30 (10, 71) 6 (4, 14) 18 (7, 43) 20 (7, 37) 13 (6, 24) 16 (11, 24) 12 (6, 25) 12 (6, 20)
post_p 0.65 (0.6, 0.84) 0.58 (0.56, 0.62) 0.64 (0.6, 0.82) 0.59 (0.56, 0.65) 0.73 (0.64, 0.96) 0.74 (0.57, 0.92) 0.81 (0.63, 0.98) 0.72 (0.61, 0.86)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.017 (0, 0.02) 0.006 (0, 0.013) 0.013 (0, 0.026) 0.012 (0, 0.019) 0.002 (0, 0.016) 0 (0, 0.01) 0.002 (0, 0.009) 0 (0, 0.011)
Taxel_therapies count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
time 22 (17, 27) 22 (17, 27) 22 (17, 27) 22 (17, 27) 22 (17, 27) 22 (17, 27) 22 (17, 27) 22 (17, 27)
n 46 (25, 58) 16 (13, 27) 24 (17, 55) 25 (17, 49) 11 (2, 17) 8 (4, 14) 9 (5, 11) 5 (0, 7)
post_p 0.72 (0.63, 0.85) 0.7 (0.56, 0.82) 0.61 (0.6, 0.72) 0.82 (0.61, 0.92) 0.62 (0.57, 0.83) 0.61 (0.56, 0.68) 0.65 (0.57, 0.72) 0.64 (0.58, 0.72)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.019 (0.011, 0.022) 0.005 (0, 0.013) 0.018 (0.012, 0.024) 0.013 (0.003, 0.018) 0 (0, 0.02) 0 (0, 0.001) 0 (0, 0.014) 0 (0, 0.015)
DRD+ Hormone_therapies count 3 3 3 3
time 36 (32, 51) 36 (32, 51) 36 (32, 51) 36 (32, 51)
n 18 (12, 45) 29 (27, 49) 10 (7, 18) 10 (8, 13)
post_p 0.82 (0.73, 0.85) 0.82 (0.76, 0.92) 0.84 (0.68, 0.92) 0.7 (0.68, 0.71)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.006 (0.005, 0.019) 0.009 (0.002, 0.009) 0.009 (0.002, 0.017) 0.009 (0.007, 0.017)
Niraparib count 350 350 350 350
time 34 (20, 53) 34 (20, 53) 34 (20, 53) 34 (20, 53)
n 29 (15, 51) 24 (15, 41) 21 (11, 38) 20 (10, 38)
post_p 0.92 (0.75, 1) 0.75 (0.7, 0.91) 0.87 (0.72, 0.99) 0.82 (0.7, 0.97)
r_prob 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.008 (0, 0.013) 0.006 (0, 0.011) 0.007 (0, 0.014) 0.007 (0, 0.013)
Taxel_therapies count 7 7 7 7
time 46 (35, 58) 46 (35, 58) 46 (35, 58) 46 (35, 58)
n 17 (9, 30) 34 (14, 53) 10 (7, 20) 14 (11, 18)
post_p 0.71 (0.67, 0.78) 0.84 (0.71, 0.92) 0.7 (0.65, 0.93) 0.81 (0.78, 0.91)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.019 (0.011, 0.024) 0.004 (0, 0.007) 0.016 (0.007, 0.023) 0.01 (0.003, 0.018)
TEfus+ Hormone_therapies count 31 31 31 31
time 43 (23, 57) 43 (23, 57) 43 (23, 57) 43 (23, 57)
n 23 (12, 59) 35 (16, 75) 15 (6, 33) 14 (5, 31)
post_p 0.78 (0.71, 0.91) 0.8 (0.71, 0.94) 0.73 (0.65, 0.86) 0.72 (0.63, 0.86)
r_prob 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.006 (0, 0.011) 0.014 (0.007, 0.019) 0.002 (0, 0.009) 0.011 (0, 0.018)
Niraparib count 4 4 4 4
time 30 (18, 46) 30 (18, 46) 30 (18, 46) 30 (18, 46)
n 9 (8, 9) 31 (18, 66) 15 (13, 17) 18 (14, 19)
post_p 0.61 (0.6, 0.64) 0.77 (0.74, 0.83) 0.8 (0.73, 0.93) 0.85 (0.76, 0.94)
r_prob 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.005 (0, 0.013) 0.013 (0.003, 0.016) 0.001 (0, 0.004) 0.009 (0.005, 0.012)
Taxel_therapies count 33 33 33 33
time 39 (20, 51) 39 (20, 51) 39 (20, 51) 39 (20, 51)
n 28 (14, 49) 48 (26, 88) 14 (6, 35) 9 (5, 29)
post_p 0.79 (0.71, 0.93) 0.81 (0.71, 0.97) 0.75 (0.64, 0.89) 0.72 (0.62, 0.89)
r_prob 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.006 (0, 0.01) 0.014 (0.008, 0.021) 0.003 (0, 0.006) 0.009 (0, 0.016)
TP53- Hormone_therapies count 28 28 28 28
time 30 (19, 55) 30 (19, 55) 30 (19, 55) 30 (19, 55)
n 76 (37, 155) 22 (10, 44) 12 (6, 27) 12 (5, 34)
post_p 0.79 (0.71, 0.94) 0.76 (0.71, 0.92) 0.73 (0.62, 0.9) 0.71 (0.6, 0.89)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.02 (0.015, 0.024) 0.007 (0, 0.01) 0.008 (0, 0.019) 0 (0, 0.008)
Niraparib count 22 22 22 22
time 24 (16, 39) 24 (16, 39) 24 (16, 39) 24 (16, 39)
n 44 (20, 83) 8 (5, 19) 18 (9, 26) 18 (13, 25)
post_p 0.79 (0.74, 0.87) 0.65 (0.62, 0.77) 0.9 (0.71, 0.98) 0.75 (0.71, 0.94)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.014 (0, 0.022) 0 (0, 0.01) 0.005 (0, 0.012) 0.004 (0, 0.012)
Taxel_therapies count 31 31 31 31
time 31 (19, 57) 31 (19, 57) 31 (19, 57) 31 (19, 57)
n 69 (42, 144) 26 (16, 58) 10 (3, 36) 13 (6, 43)
post_p 0.79 (0.7, 0.94) 0.79 (0.71, 0.92) 0.72 (0.62, 0.85) 0.76 (0.62, 0.87)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.019 (0.011, 0.023) 0.007 (0, 0.012) 0.012 (0, 0.021) 0 (0, 0.009)
TP53+ Hormone_therapies count 12 12 12 12
time 28 (19, 47) 28 (19, 47) 28 (19, 47) 28 (19, 47)
n 44 (23, 68) 25 (9, 37) 8 (5, 10) 8 (3, 18)
post_p 0.79 (0.72, 0.94) 0.73 (0.67, 0.93) 0.67 (0.62, 0.82) 0.66 (0.61, 0.76)
r_prob 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.016 (0.01, 0.021) 0.01 (0.004, 0.019) 0 (0, 0.019) 0 (0, 0.015)
Niraparib count 46 46 46 46
time 28 (18, 46) 28 (18, 46) 28 (18, 46) 28 (18, 46)
n 36 (12, 70) 21 (11, 40) 16 (10, 30) 14 (8, 30)
post_p 0.76 (0.71, 0.91) 0.76 (0.7, 0.87) 0.85 (0.71, 0.97) 0.85 (0.66, 0.99)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.014 (0.003, 0.022) 0.01 (0, 0.02) 0.007 (0, 0.013) 0.007 (0, 0.016)
Taxel_therapies count 20 20 20 20
time 27 (20, 55) 27 (20, 55) 27 (20, 55) 27 (20, 55)
n 47 (20, 85) 31 (22, 68) 9 (4, 29) 7 (4, 19)
post_p 0.77 (0.73, 0.92) 0.83 (0.71, 0.9) 0.7 (0.62, 0.87) 0.69 (0.6, 0.76)
r_prob 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.018 (0.013, 0.024) 0.012 (0.009, 0.02) 0.008 (0, 0.015) 0 (0, 0.015)
Futility:
signature treatment var — –+ -+- -++ +– +-+ ++- +++
all Hormone_therapies count 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33
time 35 (13, 55) 35 (13, 55) 35 (13, 55) 35 (13, 55) 35 (13, 55) 35 (13, 55) 35 (13, 55) 35 (13, 55)
n 49 (27, 157) 12 (5, 34) 20 (6, 54) 19 (7, 55) 8 (2, 25) 10 (2, 25) 6 (2, 17) 6 (2, 19)
post_p 0.24 (0.06, 0.42) 0.38 (0.23, 0.48) 0.26 (0.07, 0.45) 0.39 (0.17, 0.48) 0.32 (0.14, 0.47) 0.37 (0.15, 0.49) 0.38 (0.13, 0.48) 0.38 (0.24, 0.47)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.028 (0.023, 0.034) 0.017 (0.01, 0.032) 0.031 (0.023, 0.047) 0.022 (0.017, 0.041) 0.028 (0.013, 0.065) 0.016 (0.009, 0.036) 0.031 (0.018, 0.043) 0.026 (0.011, 0.088)
Niraparib count 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
time 15 (14, 16) 15 (14, 16) 15 (14, 16) 15 (14, 16) 15 (14, 16) 15 (14, 16) 15 (14, 16) 15 (14, 16)
n 9 (4, 14) 5 (3, 7) 8 (7, 8) 13 (8, 18) 13 (13, 13) 14 (13, 14) 12 (12, 12) 10 (8, 12)
post_p 0.41 (0.38, 0.44) 0.3 (0.17, 0.43) 0.41 (0.39, 0.43) 0.34 (0.29, 0.4) 0.39 (0.33, 0.44) 0.27 (0.25, 0.3) 0.43 (0.41, 0.46) 0.46 (0.43, 0.49)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.035 (0.025, 0.044) 0.043 (0.009, 0.078) 0.025 (0.025, 0.025) 0.034 (0.03, 0.038) 0.019 (0.012, 0.025) 0.016 (0.015, 0.018) 0.012 (0.009, 0.015) 0.015 (0.015, 0.016)
Taxel_therapies count 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39
time 23 (8, 42) 23 (8, 42) 23 (8, 42) 23 (8, 42) 23 (8, 42) 23 (8, 42) 23 (8, 42) 23 (8, 42)
n 30 (16, 74) 12 (6, 24) 19 (12, 56) 19 (10, 33) 5 (0, 13) 4 (0, 14) 3 (1, 10) 2 (1, 11)
post_p 0.27 (0.15, 0.48) 0.43 (0.34, 0.49) 0.3 (0.08, 0.46) 0.4 (0.16, 0.46) 0.39 (0.14, 0.49) 0.38 (0.22, 0.48) 0.32 (0.12, 0.49) 0.4 (0.17, 0.49)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.027 (0.02, 0.041) 0.017 (0, 0.025) 0.027 (0.018, 0.039) 0.021 (0.014, 0.037) 0.026 (0, 0.076) 0.013 (0, 0.025) 0.035 (0, 0.152) 0.021 (0, 0.059)
DRD+ Hormone_therapies count 76 76 76 76
time 43 (34, 56) 43 (34, 56) 43 (34, 56) 43 (34, 56)
n 20 (8, 38) 18 (6, 34) 10 (3, 24) 13 (5, 28)
post_p 0.3 (0.09, 0.46) 0.39 (0.19, 0.48) 0.32 (0.09, 0.46) 0.3 (0.13, 0.48)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.027 (0.02, 0.043) 0.014 (0.01, 0.023) 0.032 (0.023, 0.049) 0.024 (0.017, 0.04)
Niraparib count 1 1 1 1
time 16 (16, 16) 16 (16, 16) 16 (16, 16) 16 (16, 16)
n 13 (13, 13) 14 (14, 14) 12 (12, 12) 13 (13, 13)
post_p 0.46 (0.46, 0.46) 0.24 (0.24, 0.24) 0.46 (0.46, 0.46) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
r_prob 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.027 (0.027, 0.027) 0.014 (0.014, 0.014) 0.016 (0.016, 0.016) 0.015 (0.015, 0.015)
Taxel_therapies count 60 60 60 60
time 45 (35, 53) 45 (35, 53) 45 (35, 53) 45 (35, 53)
n 16 (6, 31) 18 (9, 36) 15 (6, 29) 10 (3, 25)
post_p 0.3 (0.1, 0.45) 0.38 (0.23, 0.48) 0.36 (0.11, 0.47) 0.3 (0.09, 0.46)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.031 (0.021, 0.049) 0.013 (0.009, 0.021) 0.028 (0.019, 0.048) 0.025 (0.018, 0.054)
TEfus+ Hormone_therapies count 59 59 59 59
time 34 (25, 54) 34 (25, 54) 34 (25, 54) 34 (25, 54)
n 16 (6, 35) 26 (14, 64) 13 (5, 25) 8 (4, 19)
post_p 0.39 (0.19, 0.48) 0.29 (0.14, 0.47) 0.37 (0.16, 0.49) 0.34 (0.17, 0.46)
r_prob 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.014 (0.01, 0.026) 0.023 (0.017, 0.034) 0.015 (0.009, 0.028) 0.027 (0.016, 0.039)
Niraparib count 44 44 44 44
time 30 (22, 43) 30 (22, 43) 30 (22, 43) 30 (22, 43)
n 9 (4, 18) 26 (14, 46) 18 (11, 30) 13 (7, 23)
post_p 0.24 (0.05, 0.42) 0.28 (0.09, 0.46) 0.35 (0.2, 0.48) 0.41 (0.24, 0.49)
r_prob 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.028 (0.015, 0.069) 0.025 (0.018, 0.031) 0.014 (0.009, 0.025) 0.018 (0.012, 0.027)
Taxel_therapies count 67 67 67 67
time 33 (23, 49) 33 (23, 49) 33 (23, 49) 33 (23, 49)
n 21 (11, 40) 29 (18, 54) 11 (5, 29) 8 (2, 19)
post_p 0.4 (0.22, 0.48) 0.31 (0.12, 0.49) 0.36 (0.19, 0.48) 0.33 (0.13, 0.48)
r_prob 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.015 (0.01, 0.024) 0.022 (0.016, 0.032) 0.014 (0.009, 0.034) 0.029 (0.014, 0.078)
TP53- Hormone_therapies count 125 125 125 125
time 30 (17, 51) 30 (17, 51) 30 (17, 51) 30 (17, 51)
n 52 (29, 130) 16 (5, 35) 11 (4, 29) 9 (3, 25)
post_p 0.29 (0.08, 0.48) 0.4 (0.22, 0.48) 0.36 (0.13, 0.47) 0.38 (0.15, 0.49)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.026 (0.02, 0.033) 0.015 (0.009, 0.029) 0.028 (0.016, 0.058) 0.015 (0, 0.033)
Niraparib count 20 20 20 20
time 20 (15, 27) 20 (15, 27) 20 (15, 27) 20 (15, 27)
n 32 (24, 55) 6 (4, 9) 14 (8, 22) 15 (11, 23)
post_p 0.34 (0.16, 0.49) 0.24 (0.14, 0.4) 0.44 (0.32, 0.48) 0.41 (0.31, 0.48)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.021 (0.014, 0.031) 0.035 (0.016, 0.064) 0.017 (0.009, 0.029) 0.011 (0.007, 0.022)
Taxel_therapies count 101 101 101 101
time 27 (16, 47) 27 (16, 47) 27 (16, 47) 27 (16, 47)
n 46 (24, 105) 18 (8, 41) 7 (3, 21) 10 (4, 21)
post_p 0.34 (0.06, 0.46) 0.41 (0.2, 0.48) 0.34 (0.15, 0.48) 0.35 (0.2, 0.47)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.026 (0.02, 0.036) 0.014 (0.009, 0.024) 0.027 (0.016, 0.078) 0.016 (0.007, 0.041)
TP53+ Hormone_therapies count 211 211 211 211
time 35 (22, 54) 35 (22, 54) 35 (22, 54) 35 (22, 54)
n 32 (11, 87) 24 (11, 56) 8 (3, 20) 9 (4, 26)
post_p 0.3 (0.08, 0.48) 0.32 (0.12, 0.48) 0.35 (0.13, 0.47) 0.35 (0.12, 0.48)
r_prob 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.027 (0.02, 0.043) 0.024 (0.017, 0.037) 0.028 (0.018, 0.073) 0.024 (0.015, 0.05)
Niraparib count 7 7 7 7
time 25 (21, 35) 25 (21, 35) 25 (21, 35) 25 (21, 35)
n 19 (14, 56) 15 (5, 29) 10 (4, 12) 13 (11, 18)
post_p 0.42 (0.3, 0.48) 0.24 (0.15, 0.38) 0.45 (0.43, 0.48) 0.3 (0.2, 0.49)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.026 (0.022, 0.028) 0.037 (0.024, 0.066) 0.016 (0.014, 0.027) 0.018 (0.013, 0.031)
Taxel_therapies count 190 190 190 190
time 32 (17, 51) 32 (17, 51) 32 (17, 51) 32 (17, 51)
n 35 (19, 84) 28 (15, 60) 7 (3, 24) 7 (2, 20)
post_p 0.28 (0.06, 0.46) 0.37 (0.14, 0.48) 0.34 (0.12, 0.48) 0.36 (0.18, 0.48)
r_prob 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.027 (0.02, 0.036) 0.023 (0.016, 0.031) 0.031 (0.017, 0.084) 0.027 (0.014, 0.075)